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Such clouds can exist in two stable modes, open and closed cells, for a wide range of environmental conditions. https://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/1.4973593. It is easy to not know about this because there is strong narrative selection bias in the media. climate change It is not what the authors claim. These two papers are significant because they take different but You claim it has correct physics. My studies show about half of that amount might be plausible. If not then no prediction of such models should be allowed to be credited without a heavy warning to the fact that it is just speculation. Furthermore, it is is well established that arctic amplification makes temperature swings in the Arctic 2-3-fold higher than in temperate and tropical areas. You told JamesS that you wanted to join the conversation. The amplitude of 0.1C variation in Global temperature to which you refer is occuring over a time period of 4 or 5 years. Life does not work like that. More alarming, temperatures rose rapidly from 1975 to 1980. undecidability of some propositions within axiomatic mathematical systems (Go dels The random errors are defined in terms of the standard deviation. In 2008, the organization published a report titled "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate." It matters little in the context of temperature series. Poor little diddums. Increasing Strength and Frequency of Hurricanes? Proper citation depends on your preferred or required style manual. I dont see a lot of proof for the positive impact of rising CO2 compelling on the NAO hindering the AMO warming beginning around 1995.https://wisereview.com.au/best-gaming-chairs.html, A planet surface doesnt absorb solar energy first, gets warmed and only then emits IR EM energy. They predict that his change could increase in the years ahead. The Politics of Climate. Random error is is the accidental difference between observed and actual values. This shift in how the Earth circled the Sun affected the amount of sunlight that region of Africa received. We are talking about bets. I suspect that other forms of chemical energy will involve using more energy than we could recover. Read on for the. And why did they not admit that mitigation even at a global scale as already proven in the pandemic of 2020 would have imperceptible effect on climate? . The IPCC has walked back some of its earlier alarmist claims, but it hasnt been the only scientific authority to pass off misinformation. You can tell by the way that they call behaviour into question constantly on other people. Its strange how the UN claims to actually own the science of climate change and have partnered with Google to make sure that all possible competitors are squeezed out under the guise of misinformation yet they still have to get the media to lie about the science which they say they own! There is implicit in chaos the risk of dramatic and rapid change in the Earth system atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere. "History of Climate Change Debate." It can be converted to useful energy with the right technology. Coral Reefs are Dying Because of Climate Change, Coal Pollution Can Be Seen Pouring From Power Plant Smokestacks, Greenland Ice Loss Will Cause Dangerous Sea Level Rise, Sea Level Rise is Accelerating Dramatically, The Global Temperature Record Says We Are in a Climate Emergency, The 130-Degree F Reading in Death Valley Is A World Record, Unprecedented Heat Wave in Pacific Northwest was Driven by Climate Change. It will take you about three hours to study dozens of pages in my seven papers wherein, as you could have guessed, you will find the relevant physics, and there is a AU $10,000 reward for the first to prove me wrong about the heat creep process and the fact that water vapor cools rather than warms the surface. The example I have given is of a tipping point. Congressman; Member, House Natural Resources Committee and House Judiciary Committee, Singer, Legates, and Lupos book Hot Talk, Cold Science is excellent. Of great interest, this book demonstrates that at best, the available evidence is sketchy and incomplete. The moon and the earth differ in their innate energy, earth having a larger and hotter core and energy bulk. verytallguy says: September 30, 2022 at 6:46 pm Climate Change is the rubric of the grant dependent scientists who are simply following the money. Alas, even scientists are often attracted by power and public recognition. [193], A 2017 Gallup poll found that 68% of Americans thought global warming was caused by human activity, up from 50% in 2010 and 61% in 2001, while 29% thought it was caused by natural causes, down from 46% in 2010 and 33% in 2001. The organization has also repeatedly hid scientific uncertainty, the absence of critical data, and evidence that questions or contradicts its apocalyptic prediction. The change in solar energy with the solar cycle is minute (luckily) and unable to drive significant climate change by its effect on the surface. The heat process involved now enables us to understand temperatures even down to the core of planets and moons. When a large number of tide gauge records are combined to create a global record of sea level rise, we see a large variation in the rate of rise from almost zero in some periods to double the long-term average in others. Those who tried the guessing games of climate research would be in different jobs by nightfall. The study, recently published in the Journal Nature Communications, finds that elevated carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased wood volume or the biomass of forests in the United States. They are still pretty rare. And the only thing that they find is the 0.1C change that is the accepted effect of the solar cycle.. I spent more than 3 minutes at your website (DCs) More questions than answers in the article, my apologies. the calculated with Planets Without-Atmosphere Mean Surface Temperature Equation and the measured by satellites are almost the same, very much alike. every argument is made with the grace that is so lacking amongst global warmings acolytes. That there are studies supporting something does not mean it is correct. (This image was taken by instruments aboard NASA's SOHO spacecraft. If you only are forthright on attack, good CB players can recognize that your smokescreens indicate defensiveness. The Department of the Interior has repeatedly expressed support for boosting tribal sovereignty for Indigenous tribes, but has also pursued a climate agenda limiting fossil fuel production on federal lands and waters. CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures. President Puddin Head is off the reservation! . China is now the worlds top emitter of greenhouse gases, but developed countries, primarily the United States, is still mainly responsible for causing climate change after having emitted the most pollution for the longest time. Climate change effects nearly every other sector of society. An ongoing debate (May 26, 2021) https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.12126. Dr. Singer offers informed speculation (but notes that his hypothesis is counterintuitive and has yet to be tested). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation (GCM) models project equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging from 1.8 to 5.7C. Surely there will be some takers. You are neither an artist nor a museum director, Doc, but you might still find joy in hiding and fear in being found out. . Hundreds of scientists around the world have conducted research that show human activities contribute the most to todays climate change. Hardcover 256 pages 36 figures 2 tables 6x9inches. Surveys and article-counting exercises alleged to show a consensus invariably ask the wrong questions (e.g., is climate change happening, rather than whether a human impact is likely to be dangerous) or are methodologically flawed. All of which is why the AGW hypothesis fails- an inability to falsify the null hypothesis means all global warming can be explained by natural causes. Further, Singer notes how many proposed solutions to the global warming crisis (like carbon taxes) would have severe consequences for economically disadvantaged groups and nations. The answer to the problem is however to sum all the chances when a zero chance suddenly becomes a certainty but only after the dartboard is hit. The great thing about that is that it usually highlights where their own ethics are failing. It illustrates the progressive dialling down of climate alarmism, first by demonstrating that the CMIP6 medium and high ECS models fail to simulate actual surface temperature observations (they run far too hot), then by demonstrating that even the low ECS models fail to accurately reflect the more moderate warming observed in the lower troposphere satellite data (which should theoretically exceed surface warming), then by demonstrating that the land based station observations are too warm (UHI, land use effects? When planets and moons formed in our Solar System it was the Sun that did most of the warming and, surprisingly, the heat creep process (which I was first in the world to discover back in 2013) conveyed thermal energy even down to the core, just as is still happening, for example, with the Moon where the core temperature is more than 1,000 degrees hotter than the hottest location on the surface of the Moon. The revised and expanded third edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science forms the capstone of the distinguished astrophysicist Dr. S. Fred Singers lucid, yet hard, scientific look at climate change. I find this extraordinary. Moon223,35 ..220 Humans (all inclusive) are noted for not being clever enough to understand the true natures of either randomness or infinity and have a patent inability to fake them. Climate Dynamics. Sir Arthur C. Clarke, scientist and author, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The scientific urge to consensus on the greenhouse issue tends to compromise away dissent. . ProCon.org. Liberty and Ecology Blog, As a trained statistician, I have long been puzzled by apocalyptic visions of CO2-driven global warming, when the data clearly show there has been but modest warming in recent decades. Madhav L. Khandekar, former Research Scientist, Environment Canada; Expert Reviewer, IPCC 2007 Climate Change Documents; Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Natural Hazards, In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Fred Singer, David Legates and Anthony Lupo make a strong case that politics, not sound science, is in the drivers seat of the fears of dangerous, manmade climate change. Climate Changes due to Internal Factors that do Resonate with External forcing, but the Climate Cycles have never always correlated with any External Forcing, sometimes Resonating with some external force changes and more often not Resonating with the same external force changes. CMIP6 GCMs versus global surface temperatures: ECS discussion, The Penetration Problem. Im very good at it. There are no such things as chaotic systems, even most random number generators spit out the same random numbers list if the same initial seed is used. Mises Wire, In Hot Talk, Cold Science, the illustrious Fred Singer dares to point out that the Emperor has no clothes. Is there evidence to suggest discernible human influence on global climate? Ugly building, no style, no view, what were the architects thinking? And a question, Walk toward the fire. Im looking forward to when all such discussions make these possible factors an essential part of the calculations. In addition to the general meaning in which climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, the term is commonly used to describe the There is no survey or study showing consensus on any of the most important scientific issues in the climate change debate. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not forever. This is excellent. We are creating a series of online events with the help of thousands of translators, academics, videographers and journalists. These articles are only significant in that they promote the idea that only CO2 matters for dangerous warming. Well, looks like they got what they wished for except the demand part, which is showing itself to be stubbornly inelastic as the substitutes/alternatives dont seem to be measuring up. Nor does it support the crushingly expensive policies advocated by the alarmists and adopted by governments. The higher the ECS, the more trouble we are in. Considering celestial bodies within our solar system, it is obvious how Venus served as a role model, while all others were ignored. Therefore, it follows that the actual ECS should be lower than 3 C, as Lewis (2022) also found. Its atmosphere is similar to pre life earth atmosphere with 95% CO2. Free-market perspectives on breaking news, Check Out all of Heartland's Videos on our YouTube page. Laurence I. Gould, Professor of Physics, University of Hartford; former Chair, New England Section of the American Physical Society, We have all repeatedly heard about global warming and the alleged future disasters caused by our way of life, by media, politicians and scientists who paint a disastrous future due to man-made climate change. Not if/until there is an unambiguous signal in day to day suffering in wealthy countries. Im on the side of sophisticated analysis of these two different things by the BOM. (However, it is known that if you add noise to temperature psuedoproxies, that too much noise suppresses some of the variation present in original data after reconstruction.). global warming That is serious. More research and debate is needed on the subject before mandatory restrictions are imposed. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak seems to be shaping up as one of the weakest Conservative Party Prime Ministers Britain has ever produced. Midwest Book Review, In Hot Talk, Cold Science, eminent climatologists S. Fred Singer, David Legates and Anthony Lupo reveal many flaws that underlie modern global warming theory. Why is there no indication of the effects of the global slowdown at the appropriate times? The resulting Kyoto Protocol, [139] signed by President Bill Clinton, set binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Union to reduce greenhouse gas emissions roughly 5% below 1990 levels by 2012. According to many peer-reviewed studies, over 97% of climate scientists agree that human activity is extremely likely to be the cause of global climate change. The Day of the Dead isn't Halloween. Where heat explodes in the debate is exemplified by loud claims that quantitative description of the vastly complex terrestrial ecosystem is settled science, a belief destructive to invaluable scientific inquiry. state-of-the-art. . Thank you, Nicola, for your work and insights! Te = [ (1-a) S / 4 ] (K). = 5,67*10 W/mK, the Stefan-Boltzmann constant You talk utter cr@p as usual and a lot of it. https://twitter.com/i/status/1576522107051446273. Dana T. Rohrabacher, former U.S. Rather than spreading fear of increasing carbon dioxide, we should be thankful that both the Earth and humanity are thriving, in part due to more CO2. He is certainly worth engaging with when not deliberating being rude to guest posts and I encourage him to continue here and elsewhere when being sensible but combative, rather than the poor form he insists on at times. In discussing precision and accuracy, we have calculations of pi to a million places, which indicates superb precision, but how do you prove this to be accurate? Sadly, he died soon after and the group he created immediately became obsessed with radiative physics and learned nothing about the climate. You all need to come to grips with understanding the heat creep process which is the ONLY process which correctly explains observations throughout the Solar System, whilst also being seen in experiments with centrifugal force because it can occur in any force field. CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures, The ECS is the most important climatic parameter as it measures the long-term increase in air temperature near the surface that should result from an increase in radiative forcing of approximately 3.8 W/m2, which corresponds to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 ppm (which is defined as the preindustrial level) to 560 ppm, Objectivelycombining climate sensitivity evidence, Combining different lines of evidence should, to the extent that they are independent, enable climate sensitivity to be estimated more precisely than from any single line of evidence. answerable. (Wise researchers should not try to analyse distributions containing made-up numbers.) https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat509/book/export/html/648. Models do not constitute evidence, and different models show different results. Both not true. Thank you for this short summary of error types. . The recent incapacitation of the Nord Stream pipelines should server as an object lesson for those who want to criss-cross the oceans with DC connectors, as proposed by some for a global super grid. We need to nourish a local supply of reliable and cheap energy. Part II: Will the Inflation Reduction Act Cause a Blackout? An analogous situation is the recent case of almost total failure of the epidemiological models to predict the COVID-19 pandemics progression and resulting deaths. Nicola, During the last ice age there was a well established see-saw when warming at one pole was accompanied by cooling at the other. Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction So, yes, I want cheap energy. 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